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Use probability to evaluate outcomes of decisions

S.MD.5

(+) Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values.

S.MD.5.a

Find the expected payoff for a game of chance. For example, find the expected winnings from a state lottery ticket or a game at a fast- food restaurant.

S.MD.5.b

Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values. For example, compare a high-deductible versus a low-deductible automobile insurance policy using various, but reasonable, chances of having a minor or a major accident.

S.MD.6

(+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator).

S.MD.7

(+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).